Anxious people try to control uncertainty.
Since many real-life scenarios, especially critical ones, contain irreducible uncertainty, this strategy can fail. But there are specific lessons we can learn to deal with this reality.
This post is for people who:
- Respond to poor results by examining what they should have done differently
- Equate “it went wrong” with “I messed up”.
- As a way to over prepare managing anxiety and then feel betrayed if their efforts fail
Let me tell you a story that illustrates a common mindset and denial.
Here’s what happened: My car’s engine stopped working. Cars aren’t my thing, but my mechanic neighbor had a spare car that he bought at an auction and was fixing up to sell. I have to wait a week for him to finish the repair and then I can buy it.
I rented a car for a week and did everything I could to make the process of buying a new car go smoothly, but it didn’t.
Lesson 1: Many situations have irreducible uncertainty
I tried to control as many variables as possible to ensure a good result. However, the morning I was supposed to make the purchase, my neighbor told me he would have additional problems and he didn’t think the car was a good purchase for me.
It is very common that no matter how many variables we control and how hard we try to control them, we cannot reduce the uncertainty to zero. It is inherent in the chaos of life.
When we accept this truth, it can help us relax and feel more confident in our decisions.
Lesson 2: A bad result doesn’t mean you made bad decisions
I checked with my neighbor midweek to make sure the car was still ok. I called my insurance about adding a new car to my policy. I even booked a spare car for an extra week in case the repair process takes longer.
The morning I had to return the rental car, I confirmed with him that the purchase was a go.
None of that guaranteed a good outcome.
When such situations occur, we must acknowledge this voice decision making and overzealous behavior can lead to bad consequences. The result will not make your decisions wrong.
Lesson 3: Less anxiety doesn’t mean you’ve ignored the Red Flag
When this car opportunity came up, I had my usual anxious thoughts that it would probably look like a pear. I thought, “He’s probably going to find something wrong with this very nice car. Of course it’s going to happen.”
In the morning we were to close the sale, after his confirmation, my worries were put to rest. Someone applies anxiety-driven thinking might think it seems intuition which should have been taken into account, but the disappearance of anxiety is justified.
It wasn’t a case of “Of course this was going wrong.” It was always a possibility, but no outcome was certain.
Lesson 4: When a plan goes awry, you can only choose from the options available at that moment
Right before my rental car was supposed to be returned, I canceled the backup rental reservation I had for the extra week.
Since my neighbor was going to pick me up from the rental place, this phone call was when I realized the plan was off and he didn’t think we should buy the car. This left me standing outside with two kids, no car, and unable to get another reservation at that location. I had to rebook from my phone elsewhere and Uber there.
At that point, I could not refund the canceled order. I had to make the best new decision.
It was smart to cancel the order when I was done (only an hour before the start time). To hold it until the absolute last moment, when there was no reason to believe it, was too much.
Lesson 5: Relying on someone else’s judgment is a smart strategy, even when it’s not reckless.
I had many thoughts along the lines of: “I should never trust anyone’s ratings or predictions.” But who wants to live like that?
My neighbor said that the car is fine. It was legitimate information to act on. His honesty in pulling the wire confirms this trust, as he could sell lemons.
Lesson 6: It’s not always smart to prepare for every low-probability scenario
Another self-critical thought that popped into my head was that I should have spent a week researching alternative cars so I wouldn’t have to go back to scratch. It might help me feel in control, but in most scenarios, it would be a wasted effort.
Excessive contingency planning for things that may not happen is mostly anxiety, not wisdom– driving Opportunity costs increase over time.
Lesson 7: You can handle emotional stress
I was a little shaken by this, but then I chose not to let it go disrupts my routines or create more stress than was necessary. After I got the new lease, I did as many of my regular Saturday activities as possible so that my children and I could use this familiarity as a way to emotionally regrouped.
Specific examples (preferably your own) Follow the principles
Many articles about uncertainty are abstract, but most of us don’t learn that way. We need detailed stories that contain specific psychological moments where general patterns of thinking emerge and corrections can be applied.
Use my example as a template for structuring your own examples that will make the antidotes the most memorable for you. The best stories to learn are the ones that successfully convince you to believe your own denials.
